Tournaments: Don't make weak bluffs
The biggest problem that many players face is knowing how much to bet to pull off a successful bluff. The most common mistake is under betting a bluff. Now some players think that you should move all-in if you want to bluff, but I don’t subscribe to that theory unless I’ve got lots of outs. However, if you decide that a bluff is warranted, you will need to put in a substantial amount of chips to discourage opponents making easy calls.
For example, let’s say you are in a four-handed pot with no raise preflop. You have J-10. The flop is A-Q-6. It is checked around. On the turn, a 5 falls and again, it is checked around. The river is another 5. Now you feel that no one has a hand worth calling with in this pot and everyone has checked to you, so you decide to make a bluff at the pot. How much should you put in? Let’s say the blinds are 50-100 and therefore, there is 400 in the pot. In this case, you should probably bet around 1000 if you really want to bluff.
Often, weak players will throw in 150 in chips on the river to see if he can pick it up cheaply. But this is called a “post oak bet” and will not force enough hands to fold. For example, a player with a hand like 9-9 or Q-10 suited may be inclined to check all the way, but won’t hesitate in calling a small bet on the river in this situation. In fact, if he even got a whiff of a bluff, he’d be crazy not to call 150 to win 550 with a hand like 9-9. But if you bet a sum like 1000, you put this opponent to a rather large decision and he may fold, even if he thinks that there is a 50% chance that you are bluffing.
The reasons is simple – a small bet does not force an opponent to carefully consider his decision to call you. If you actually force your opponent to THINK about it, you will be amazed at how easily he can talk himself into folding. In almost induces a type of paranoia. He may think that the river may have helped you – perhaps you have a hand like 4-5 suited. Alternatively, he may put you on an ace with a small kicker or a semi-steal with Q-J (neither of which he can beat). He may even think that you slowplayed a monster from the flop, hoping that someone would bet so that you could get a big raise in.
Which ever way, that large bet will force him to actually consider whether it is worth calling you and that’s when he usually talks himself into folding a mediocre hand. And if you want to be successful at bluffing, especially in no limit, you will need to put in a bet that is big enough to force those mediocre hands to fold.
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